Considering use of Commons but concerned about major upgrades (D8) in future

I have a project that needs functionality like Commons. I am considering 2 paths:

1. Build from scratch with OG, etc. - with much less functionality than Commons, but enough to do what I need.
2. Use Commons

Commons has more than I need, but would love to get all that functionality. However I am concerned that by going that route I may be heading for a huge headache when I have to upgrade to D8 - yes, that is years away, but still... If I build from scratch with just a few modules, that is less of a concern.

I know there is probably no great answer for this, but if any input, I would appreciate it.

Thanks.