| Project: | Drupal core |
| Version: | 7.x-dev |
| Component: | other |
| Category: | task |
| Priority: | normal |
| Assigned: | arlinsandbulte |
| Status: | closed (fixed) |
Issue Summary
Dries has said that Drupal 7 will be released when it is ready.
How do we know when it is ready?... Dries has said when the critical issue count reaches ZERO, that is when it is ready.
So, I started keeping track of the Critical Issue count to see how we are progressing. I started keeping track of the critical issue count in March, and there is a clear trend visible.
As of today, that trend extrapolates to a date of June 19, 2010 to reach 0 critical issues.
I plan on updating this issue periodically to inform, and hopefully encourage others about the (imminent?) release of the best Drupal ever!
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Note:
This is only an estimated forecast based on the critical issue count. Dries & webchick have the final word on when and how Drupal 7 is released.
Comments
#1
Today's Date -> 4/14/2010
110 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/20/2010
#2
Today's Date -> 4/15/2010
112 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/22/2010
#3
Today's Date -> 4/18/2010
112 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/27/2010
#4
MISTAKE - Ignore the attachment
#5
Oops, #4 above had a mistake.
Today's Date -> 4/19/2010
115 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/4/2010
#6
Today's Date -> 4/20/2010
100 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/2/2010
#7
Today's Date -> 4/22/2010
95 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/29/2010
#8
Mistake, disregard attached file
#9
Today's Date -> 4/24/2010
94 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/27/2010
#10
Today's Date -> 4/27/2010
97 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/29/2010
#11
Subscribing, could you provide the Spreadsheet file please?
#12
Sure, spreadsheet data attached. (nuts!, cannot attach .xlsx files... converting to .xls)
Today's Date -> 4/29/2010
87 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/28/2010
#13
Today's Date -> 4/30/2010
85 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/27/2010
#14
Wow, very cool.
#15
Today's Date -> 5/2/2010
86 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/28/2010
#16
Today's Date -> 5/6/2010/2010
86 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 6/30/2010
#17
nifty. If you have a twitter account, I would follow it, might get more exposure than this issue.
#18
This is so insanely helpful. Thank you!!
Now let's get crackin'! ;) *whppsshh!*
#19
+1 for getting a twitter account
#20
@drupalforecast ? ;)
#21
Hmmm... I might look into twitter... I have never seriously used it (but I did sign up for an account a while ago)...
Today's Date -> 5/7/2010
84 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/1/2010
#22
Great work!
Note that there are also 4 non-critical release checklist issues that are also release blockers - http://drupal.org/project/drupal
#23
Today's Date -> 5/8/2010
89 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/4/2010
#24
Today's Date -> 5/10/2010
86 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/6/2010
#25
5/11/2010 - 87 bugs
5/12/2010 - 84 bugs
#26
Today's Date -> 5/12/2010
84 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/9/2010
#27
Today's Date -> 5/13/2010
86 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/11/2010
#28
Today's Date -> 5/14/2010
82 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/13/2010
#29
@webchick: Could you please give a quick evaluation how well these projections correlate to what's happening on the ground?
For instance, does 7/13 align with core developers' time lines? How likely is it that some upcoming code sprint will radically disrupt these projections?
#30
Fascinating projection and process...assumes all critical issues are the same? ignores the principle of "the long tail"? makes us all itchy with anticipation anyway??
go core team!
#31
Very unlikely. When we had 300 critical issues, it was easy to make a dent by sprinting, most of what's left is slog now.
The only thing which will make a significant dent in the current numbers beyond knocking them down one by one is #669048: We should have four priorities not three (introduce a new 'major' priority) - there are issues in the critical queue which aren't really release blockers - for example many of them have existed since Drupal 5 and we've had two releases come out with those bugs in, however they're either very annoying, or very serious when you hit them (but only 0.01% of sites might etc.), so demoting them to 'normal' isn't great either.
At the moment we abuse 'critical' to mean two things - 1. release blocker 2. 'we really should sort this out it's horrible'. Moving the latter category to 'major' would let us differentiate better and see what the actual release blockers are. For example there or more than 50 'critical' issues against Drupal 8 already, despite no Drupal 8 code actually existing yet - http://drupal.org/project/issues/search/drupal?text=&assigned=&submitted=&participant=&priorities[]=1&version[]=572834&issue_tags_op=or&issue_tags=
Also for people following this issue, note that 0 critical issues = release candidate, we may well have 2-3 of those before a release.
#32
Today's Date -> 5/16/2010
80 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/15/2010
#33
subscribing, very exciting countdown =)
#34
May 17 - 79 bugs
#35
lol
This countdown is a very good idea.
Though I hope, that Drupal 7 will be ready sooner. ;-)
#36
May 18 - 78 bugs
#37
Today's Date -> 5/18/2010
78 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/16/2010
#38
The forecast is increasing every day. Now we can do the forecast of the forecast.
#39
You plot the projected dates over time and do linear regression on that data. I think that can also be accomplished by differentiating something, but I'm not sure.
#40
May 19 - 78 bugs
#41
The idea of a forecast-forecast is delightfully ridiculous :) I was thinking of doing the same thing a few days ago.
Maybe a better option would be to do an exponential fit on the original critical issue data rather than the linear fit that has been used. That would provide a more accurate "forecast" considering that the rate of issue closures is slowing and, as was pointed out earlier in post #30, account for the long tail.
I really like this thread and I've been excited to see the issue count drop a good bit in the last two days.
-Josh
#42
Actually, the best option of all would be to review and re-roll some patches to bring that critical queue down instead of dorking around with numbers. ;) ;)
#43
Today's Date -> 5/20/2010
77 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 7/18/2010
#44
May 21 - 77 bugs
#45
var issue = 'awesome';
issue.do('subscribe');
:D
#46
May 22 - 79 bugs
#47
May 23 - 77 bugs
#48
I detect a flattening in the curve...
#49
May 24 - 78 bugs
This saddens me. :(
#50
There are two issues why progress is slow:
1. A big backlog of non-critical RTBC issues, there's been over 50 since more or less the new year. If you're following this thread and want to help, the best way would to be to work through that list oldest first, and send the most recent patch for re-testing (and possibly review the issue to see if it's still relevant and whether the patch is actually rtbc).
http://drupal.org/project/issues/search/drupal?page=1&text=&assigned=&submitted=&participant=&status[0]=14&version[0]=156281&issue_tags_op=or&issue_tags=
Cutting that list down to a manageable size (by either a commit spree or marking enough of them 'needs work' to allow a commit spree to make a bigger dent) would likely help the velocity of critical issues since it'd be easier to focus on just those (especially now there's not much of an rtbc critical backlog any more).
2. The remaining critical issues are in the main quite hard, in some cases there's not much actually needs to be done to get them committed, but they're long and complicated discussions in most cases which are hard to pick through and figure out what needs doing. There's not really a good solution to that. However people wanting to help, find me in irc and I'll try to find an issue that suits you.
#51
All the images in this queue are making it a pain to load in the browser... so I am just display the current date and forecasted 0 critical issues date now. Maybe I will edit the previous and do the same.
As for the linearity of the curve, I think a linear regression remains the best forecast method. If a VERY clear trend develops that shows otherwise, I will change. As the issues get fewer, they also get harder and take longer to squash. But also, the same number of resources (people & time) are working on fewer issues...
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 7/21/2010
#52
May 25 - 78 bugs
#53
subscribing
#54
May 27 - 79 bugs
#55
can I be the first one to say that this thread is actually jinxing the critical bug count. :-)))
the first estimate predicted June 20th...by which time it's looking like there'll still be 60-70 bugs.
#56
subscribing
#57
Today's Date -> 5/28/2010
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 7/26/2010
#58
May 28 - 81 bugs (I think)
May 29 - 82 bugs (I think)
#59
May 30 - 80 bugs
#60
May 31 - 79 bugs
#61
Hey all,
I was inspired by this thread and arlinsandbulte's work.
So I made a site dedicated to it.
Drupal7ReleaseDate.com
It includes a graph!
I'd love any feedback from the community.
PS - I included more data points than arlinsandbulte had in his last post, so the date is actually about a week later than his projections show.
------
auzigog
http://activismlabs.org
#62
At the following URL a longer list of the bugcount is shown http://rym.waglo.com/drupal-7-status
#63
Nice effort @auzigog, but couldn't you have built it with Drupal?
#64
Today's Date -> 6/1/2010
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 7/30/2010
Impressive website, auzigog! Should I continue here, or defer this issue to auzigog's website?
As for "why not drupal" - I am a firm believer in using the best tool for the job... this looks good to me.
#65
@arlinsandbulte If you want to continue, feel free. It was your idea to begin with, after all.
I agree. Drupal would've been overkill for such a tiny project with a few lines of code. Although a lot of people have been asking that question so I might just move it over to Drupal (7, of course) just to not seem heretical.
#66
Also, here's the spreadsheet that I'm using including a handful of extra data points.
I might go back and use some of the data that @nvanhove linked to.
#67
Today's Date -> 6/2/2010
78 Critical Issues
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 8/3/2010
#68
Today's Date -> 6/3/2010
78 Critical Issues
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 8/6/2010
#69
Nice! BTW, I also have all the bug and patch data available in csv since early November 2009 at the above URL. Oups, I was replying to http://drupal.org/node/770776#comment-3036324
#70
Today's Date -> 6/4/2010
79 Critical Issues
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 8/10/2010
#71
Today's Date -> 6/5/2010
73 Critical Issues
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 8/12/2010
#72
Today's Date -> 6/7/2010
72 Critical Issues
Forecasted Zero Critical Issues Date -> 8/14/2010
#73
The predicted release date seems to move a few days further away with every update... you sure this thread isn't jinxing it? :-)
#74
please see #55
8-)
#75
Yes, the lineal prediction it's a bad choice, should be potential.
Lineal correlation (R^2 = 0,8915) < Potential correlation (R^2 = 0,9493)
#76
OK, since it seems so many here question the validity of the linear regression forecast, I did some work to also include a logarithmic forecast.
Linear regression: y=m*x+b
Logarithmic regression: y=m*ln(x)+b
I still believe that a linear regression is most applicable and accurate. Regression analysis is not JUST about choosing a curve type with the best fit, but also choosing a type that best fits the situation.
Polynomial regression: No, they regressions are usually not very good for extrapolation (but can be good for interpolation). 2nd order might be ok, but in this case, it has no roots (does not cross zero). So that is out too.
Exponential & Power regressions: No, the resulting equations for these types of regressions NEVER reach zero. So, if that type of regression analysis is used, forecast date would be somewhere close to infinity.
Logarithmic regression works reasonably well, and by optimizing the 'zero reference date' we can get a very high R^2 value (see the excel file). HOWEVER, that results in a date of over a year away! I don't think Webchick or Dries would realistically let that happen (or maybe they would).
We could somehow choose a 'zero reference date' to get a more accurate forecast, but how would we choose that?
So, I still think linear is best.
This is only a forecast, not a prediction. The forecast will never be perfect.
I originally intended it for three reasons:
1.) Satisfy my curiosity
2.) Motivate others to contribute and speed the development process.
3.) Provide a reasonable goal for all those d7CX pledgers (if they are done by June 20... BONUS!)
With all that, here is the latest info, now including the logarithmic forecast.
Today's Date -> 6/8/2010
68 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/15/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 6/29/2011
#77
Do you think using older historical data would change your forecast?
#78
RE: #77 - Yes, I have seen that data. And yes, it would change the forecast (naturally). But I have not taken the time to investigate that...
Today's Date -> 6/9/2010
67 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/16/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 6/17/2011
#79
there's so much I love about this thread, mainly that it shows the limits of "science". The very first post in the thread posited that it would take 2 months and 6 days to clear 110 critical issues. Now, we see the prediction that it will take 2 months and 6 days to clear 67. Superb.
I have a duck. If it sleeps under the stairs, there'll be no drupal 7 official release tomorrow, if it sleeps in the sink, there will be. Tonight it's sleeping under the stairs again. Official Duck Forecast - no drupal 7 official release tomorrow. You can sleep peacefully tonight.
of course, I also have a logarithmic duck forecast but I have to look between its legs for that.
#80
@79
:-)
#81
keep up the good work! :0)
#82
Today's Date -> 6/10/2010
66 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/17/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 6/3/2011
#83
Today's Date -> 6/11/2010
67 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/18/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/27/2011
#84
Today's Date -> 6/12/2010
66 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/19/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/19/2011
#85
Today's Date -> 6/13/2010
67 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/16/2011
#86
Today's Date -> 6/14/2010
68 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/19/2011
#87
Today's Date -> 6/15/2010
66 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/22/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/16/2011
#88
#89
Subby.
#90
sub-scrib-ing!
#91
Today's Date -> 6/16/2010
67 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/23/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/18/2011
#92
Today's Date -> 6/17/2010
65 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/24/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/15/2011
#93
But there is A TON of RTBCs right now (18 by my count)... Keep up the good work everyone!
Today's Date -> 6/18/2010
65 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/25/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/13/2011
#94
Today's Date -> 6/19/2010
64 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/26/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 5/10/2011
#95
Today's Date -> 6/20/2010
60 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 4/28/2011
#96
Making some headway!
Today's Date -> 6/21/2010
55 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/26/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 4/6/2011
#97
I think that's the first time I've seen the date move earlier.
#98
interesting to note that D5 took 11 weeks between beta 1 and full release. D6 took 21 weeks for the same journey.
I know the D7 team wanted to release a beta this week (http://drupal.org/drupal-7.0-alpha5)
but there are many issues stopping it. So let's say they resolve those in a few weeks (july 20th)...then add 20 weeks to that.
My prediction: December 15th (that's for the full release...not for when the critical count gets to 0)
let's see if that's more accurate than using the matrix to make a prediction! ;-)
edit: silly typo
#99
Today's Date -> 6/22/2010
59 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 3/27/2011
#100
Today's Date -> 6/24/2010
54 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 3/10/2011
#101
WOW, significant progress today. Way to go!
Today's Date -> 6/25/2010
44 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/26/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 2/4/2011
#102
Today's Date -> 6/26/2010
45 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/25/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 1/10/2011
#103
Today's Date -> 6/28/2010
41 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/24/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 12/16/2010
#104
Today's Date -> 6/29/2010
39 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/23/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/23/2010
#105
Today's Date -> 6/30/2010
38 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/22/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/4/2010
#106
Today's Date -> 7/1/2010
36 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/18/2010
#107
Today's Date -> 7/2/2010
36 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/5/2010
#108
Today's Date -> 7/5/2010
41 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/29/2010
#109
Today's Date -> 7/6/2010
40 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/24/2010
#110
Today's Date -> 7/7/2010
40 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/21/2010
#111
Today's Date -> 7/8/2010
43 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/20/2010
#112
Today's Date -> 7/9/2010
43 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/20/2010
#113
Today's Date -> 7/11/2010
50 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/22/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/24/2010
#114
Today's Date -> 7/12/2010
53 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/23/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 9/30/2010
#115
Today's Date -> 7/13/2010
48 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/24/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/3/2010
#116
Today's Date -> 7/14/2010
47 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/25/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/5/2010
#117
Today's Date -> 7/15/2010
46 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/26/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/7/2010
#118
Today's Date -> 7/21/2010
45 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/10/2010
#119
Today's Date -> 7/22/2010
40 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/28/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/11/2010
#120
Today's Date -> 7/23/2010
38 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/29/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/11/2010
#121
Today's Date -> 7/26/2010
39 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/29/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/12/2010
#122
Today's Date -> 7/27/2010
41 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/30/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/14/2010
#123
Today's Date -> 7/28/2010
41 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 8/31/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/16/2010
#124
Today's Date -> 7/29/2010
38 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/1/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#125
Today's Date -> 7/30/2010
35 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/2/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#126
Wordpress 3 is out already, upgrade only took a few seconds. While Drupal is snailing behind with every new release, Wordpress is pounding out new releases like there's no tomorrow. All I can say is wow. Hopefully by the time the long awaited D7 gets released we won't be too flabbergasted from all the anticipated hype.
#127
It isn't a race. If Wordpress is coming out with new releases, great. All the best to them.
Let Drupal 7 be released when it is ready.
As for the hype, what hype?
#128
Today's Date -> 8/1/2010
35 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/2/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#129
Apples and oranges. They actually both release pretty frequently (Drupal sends out minor releases every 1-2 months), but WP includes changes, additions, etc., into minor releases (e.g. 3.1 to 3.2) whereas Drupal will only include bug fixes in them, saving any other changes or additions for major releases. Can't really compare the two. Also, why would you want to?
#130
Today's Date -> 8/2/2010
33 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/3/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#131
Today's Date -> 8/3/2010
33 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/4/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#132
Today's Date -> 8/4/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/4/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/16/2010
#133
Just want to echo @catch from above that 0 criticals is the criteria for the first release candidate (which might be followed by any number of other release candidates). Its not when a final release is made. We did not even reach having a beta yet.
#134
@133: True True. I changed the title to clarify that better.
Today's Date -> 8/5/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/4/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/15/2010
#135
I'm fascinated that http://drupal7releasedate.com/ and your projects have diverged by 1 day for the past week or two. My projects are always one day further into the future.
I also imagine that your logarithmic projects are a good guess of when a real release will be out, but that's just my hunch, not based on the math. :)
#136
Hard to believe someone would go through all the trouble of registering a domain for drupal7releasedate.com was it really necessary ?
#137
@espirates - I thought it would be a good way to encourage people who are searching for it to go work on the issue queue.
#138
Today's Date -> 8/6/2010
31 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/5/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/15/2010
#139
Today's Date -> 8/7/2010
31 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/5/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/15/2010
#140
Today's Date -> 8/9/2010
31 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/6/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/15/2010
#141
Today's Date -> 8/10/2010
34 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/7/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/16/2010
#142
Today's Date -> 8/11/2010
34 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/7/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/17/2010
#143
#136 @espirates - never be surprised by the dedication of the Drupal community!
#144
Today's Date -> 8/12/2010
34 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/8/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/19/2010
#145
http://drupal7releasedate.com/graph.php shows there are 0 (ZERO) critical bugs as today. O_o
#146
@balbo #135 - I fixed the graph and the data. The new regression in about 4 hours will be accurate. D.O started only showing the crit count after logging in, so I couldn't parse it with a simple page request.
Side note - I used the Simple Test browser script to emulate a login. I love the simple test browser class oh so very much.
#147
I wrote a small PHP script to predict the release date. If you want to skip the boring details, conclusion: Sep 30th, 2010. 95% confidence interval: September 13th, 2010 - October 17th, 2010.
Assumptions:
- Daily changes in the critical issue count vary approximately Normally - seems to be true, a few outliers but nothing dramatically problematic.
- Daily changes in the critical issue count are independent of each other - this is a more risky assumption, but the correlation between the change in critical issue count and the previous change in critical issue count is not statistically significant at the alpha = 0.05 level.
- The mean change in critical issue count thus far will remain essentially unchanged through the release date of Drupal 7 - this may not be the case if the issues that we're left with are tougher to solve; if this assumption is incorrect then the whole prediction is meaningless.
- I wrote my code correctly, both programatically and statistically - I attached the source code so you can judge for yourself, patches/improvements welcome.
Results:
Ran 10000 simulations using a mean daily difference of -0.7746 critical issues with a standard deviation of 3.1972 critical issues, starting point from August 14th, 2010, with 36 critical issues. The percentile lines represent the 0th (best-case), 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 95th, and 99.99th (worst-case) percentiles.
$ ./release-date.php -0.7746 3.1972 "August 14th, 2010" 36 10000 0,5,25,50,75,95,99.99
44Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
43Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
42Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
41   .                                                                                                   Â
40  . .....                                                                                              Â
39 .      .. .... . . .                                                                                 Â
38           .   . .                                                                                    Â
37 ...               . ....                                                                             Â
36 + ..                   .                                                                            Â
35 +++ ..                                                                                               Â
34 .+*++ ..                .                                                                           Â
33    * +  ..               .                                                                          Â
32 ..++* ++  ..              ...                                                                       Â
31   . +** +   ..               .                                                                      Â
30    . + * ++   ..              .... .                                                               Â
29  .   + * +    .                 . .                                                              Â
28     . + * ++   ..                .                                                                Â
27      . + ** +    ..                 ...                                                           Â
26   .  . + * ++    .                   .                                                          Â
25    .  . + *  +    ..                  ..                                                        Â
24         . ++ ** +     ..                  ...      .                                             Â
23     .   .  + * ++     ..                        .. .                                            Â
22      .   .  + *  +      .                      .                                                Â
21       .   .  + ** ++     ..                ...     .                                           Â
20        .   .  +  *  +      .                  .     .                                          Â
19              .  +  *  ++     ..                        ..                                        Â
18         .    .  +  *   +      .                         .                                       Â
17          .    .  ++ **  +      ..                             .                                 Â
16           .    .   +  *  ++      .                        . .. .                                Â
15                  .   +  *   +      ..                     . .   ..                              Â
14            .     .   +  **  ++      ..                            ..                            Â
13             .     .   +   *   +       .                             ....                        Â
12                     .   ++  *   +       .                                                         Â
11              .      .    +  *   ++      ..                              .                       Â
10               .      .    +  **   +       ..                               .                    Â
9                 .      .    +   *   ++       .                            .. .                   Â
8                          .    +   *    +       ..                              .. .               Â
7                  .       .    ++  **   +        .                               .                Â
6                   ..      ..    +   *   ++       ..                                               Â
5                              .    +   *    +        .                              .              Â
4                               .    +   **   +        ..                                            Â
3                     .         .    +    *   ++        .                            ..   .       Â
2                                 .    ++   *    +        .                             .. . .. .  Â
1                      ..         .     +   *    +        ..                             .   ..   Â
0                        .         .     +   **   ++        .                                    ...
Day 15              Sep 1        15             Oct 1        15              Nov 1         15      Â
Sep 3 2010Â
Sep 4 2010Â
Sep 5 2010Â
Sep 6 2010Â +
Sep 7 2010Â
Sep 8 2010Â
Sep 9 2010Â
Sep 10 2010 +
Sep 11 2010 ++
Sep 12 2010 +++
Sep 13 2010 +++
Sep 14 2010 ++++++
Sep 15 2010 ++++++++++
Sep 16 2010 ++++++++++++
Sep 17 2010 ++++++++++++++
Sep 18 2010 ++++++++++++++++++
Sep 19 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 20 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 21 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 22 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 23 2010 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 24 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 25 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 26 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 27 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 28 2010 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 29 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sep 30 2010 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 1 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 2 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 3 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 4 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 5 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 6 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 7 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 8 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 9 2010Â +++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 10 2010 +++++++++++++++++++++
Oct 11 2010 +++++++++++++++++
Oct 12 2010 ++++++++++++++++
Oct 13 2010 ++++++++++++++
Oct 14 2010 ++++++++++++
Oct 15 2010 +++++++++++
Oct 16 2010 ++++++++
Oct 17 2010 ++++++++
Oct 18 2010 ++++++++
Oct 19 2010 ++++
Oct 20 2010 +++++
Oct 21 2010 ++++
Oct 22 2010 ++++
Oct 23 2010 +++
Oct 24 2010 +++
Oct 25 2010 +
Oct 26 2010 ++
Oct 27 2010 +
Oct 28 2010 +
Oct 29 2010
Oct 30 2010 +
Oct 31 2010 +
Nov 1 2010Â
Nov 2 2010Â
Nov 3 2010Â +
Nov 4 2010Â
Nov 5 2010Â
Nov 6 2010Â +
Nov 7 2010Â
Nov 7 2010Â
Nov 8 2010Â
Nov 9 2010Â
Nov 10 2010
Nov 11 2010
Nov 12 2010
Nov 13 2010
Nov 14 2010
Nov 15 2010
Nov 16 2010
Nov 17 2010
Nov 18 2010
Nov 19 2010
Nov 20 2010
Nov 21 2010
Nov 22 2010
Nov 23 2010
Nov 24 2010
Nov 25 2010
Nov 26 2010
Avg: Sep 30 2010
Std: 8.84 days
Min: Sep 6 2010
Med: Sep 30 2010
Max: Nov 24 2010
The script is attached for peer review. I'm just a statistics student, so it's quite possible that something statistics-related is incorrect with my code, or that there's an easier way to accomplish what I've done - please let me know!
Everything seems about right, though. Thanks to arlinsandbulte for collecting the data!
#148
It will be ready by 2012 in time for the end of the world.
#149
@auzigog Thanks for the SimpleTest tip ;)
I too have been monitoring bugs since last year. I got caught a few with ago with a subtle change to the html code and now this, which I am just noticing. One thing I was doing (nothing pretty, hey, that's me!) was sharing the data I was gathering. Could you do this and provide a csv file? It would be great if you could grab all 4 data points too. You don't have to show them in the graph, just handy to have in the csv, since you're parsing the page anyway).
Let me know either way. If you do provide the data, I will simply point my page to yours. And if you don't, I will fix my script.
#150
Today's Date -> 8/15/2010
37 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/9/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/21/2010
#151
@Robin Millette - Hey. Not sure exactly what you're looking for? The data I have is almost identical to the data arlinsandbulte has been posting in his .xls. Can you clarify how I can help?
#152
@auzigog, ah, doh, never mind, my bad. I will point my page here in that case. Oh, and I'll add a link your site too while I'm at it.
#153
Today's Date -> 8/16/2010
35 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/10/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/23/2010
#154
Today's Date -> 8/17/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/11/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/23/2010
#155
Today's Date -> 8/18/2010
31 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/12/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#156
Today's Date -> 8/19/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/12/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#157
Today's Date -> 8/20/2010
28 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/13/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/25/2010
#158
Today's Date -> 8/21/2010
28 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/14/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/25/2010
#159
Today's Date -> 8/22/2010
19 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/14/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#160
Today's Date -> 8/23/2010
26 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/14/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#161
Today's Date -> 8/24/2010
25 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/15/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#162
Today's Date -> 8/25/2010
25 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/15/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#163
Today's Date -> 8/26/2010
25 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/16/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/25/2010
#164
Today's Date -> 8/27/2010
22 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/16/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#165
Today's Date -> 8/29/2010
22 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/17/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/24/2010
#166
Today's Date -> 8/30/2010
27 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/17/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/25/2010
#167
Today's Date -> 8/31/2010
27 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/18/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/26/2010
#168
Today's Date -> 9/1/2010
28 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/19/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/27/2010
#169
Today's Date -> 9/2/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/20/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/28/2010
#170
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the first week of September. But another concern, almost as big as when Drupal 7 will ship, is when its most popular modules (with or without the #D7CX pledge) will ship their new versions. Views, for instance, has not pledged to release a D7 version on the same day D7 ships. Almost certainly many of the modules that have pledged will not actually release a stable D7 version that day. I'm sure many people would love to start migrating their websites to D7 as soon as it comes out, but won't be able to because the corresponding modules aren't ready yet. Of course if the site has been working thus far then there's probably no real urgency to upgrade to another major release, but it would still be nice.
Edit: Uh, why did I say "first week of September" when I was posting this on the first week of September? The world may never know.
#171
Today's Date -> 9/3/2010
28 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/30/2010
#172
Isn't views built in to D7?
#173
daviesap: nope ... most of CCK is though. There are few basic (read *very basic*) features of views covered by the new field api but 99.9% of D7 sites will still use views.
#174
exactly...that's why Views not being D7 ready will be a show stopper for so many, as bad as D7 itself not being ready. At least the D7CX move should prevent what happened with D6.
#175
Today's Date -> 9/4/2010
31 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/21/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/30/2010
#176
Today's Date -> 9/5/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/22/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 10/31/2010
#177
Today's Date -> 9/6/2010
29 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/23/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/2/2010
#178
Today's Date -> 9/7/2010
28 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/23/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/3/2010
#179
Today's Date -> 9/8/2010
27 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/24/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/4/2010
#180
Today's Date -> 9/9/2010
23 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/25/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/4/2010
#181
Today's Date -> 9/10/2010
22 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/25/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/5/2010
#182
Today's Date -> 9/11/2010
20 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/26/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/5/2010
#183
Today's Date -> 9/13/2010
22 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/5/2010
#184
Today's Date -> 9/14/2010
20 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/27/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/5/2010
#185
It's only The Most Awesome Bug Ever (TM)!
#186
Today's Date -> 9/15/2010
20 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/28/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/6/2010
#187
Today's Date -> 9/16/2010
19 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/28/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/6/2010
#188
Today's Date -> 9/17/2010
22 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/29/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/6/2010
#189
Today's Date -> 9/18/2010
21 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/29/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/7/2010
#190
Today's Date -> 9/19/2010
23 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 9/30/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/8/2010
#191
<<>>>
Free Drupal 7 From Bug Prison
=)
#192
Today's Date -> 9/20/2010
25 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/1/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/9/2010
#193
Good Luck, Drupal!
#194
Today's Date -> 9/21/2010
24 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/2/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#195
Today's Date -> 9/22/2010
21 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/2/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#196
Today's Date -> 9/23/2010
21 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/3/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#197
Today's Date -> 9/24/2010
20 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/4/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#198
Today's Date -> 9/25/2010
20 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/4/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/12/2010
#199
Today's Date -> 9/26/2010
19 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/5/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/12/2010
#200
Now we are at the #200 comment mark, how about a new thread without the images?
[edit]Thanks for removing the images.[/edit]
Thanks for the great dedication to this thread!
#201
Yeah, all those images I did early on really weighed down this issue. I finally took the time to just eliminate them.
Today's Date -> 9/27/2010
18 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/5/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
Note: the linear forecast is putting the date NEXT WEEK!
#202
Subscribing
#203
Today's Date -> 9/28/2010
16 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/6/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#204
Today's Date -> 9/29/2010
16 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/6/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#205
subscribing
#206
Today's Date -> 9/30/2010
14 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/7/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#207
Today's Date -> 10/1/2010
13 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/7/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#208
Today's Date -> 10/2/2010
12 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/7/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#209
Today's Date -> 10/3/2010
11 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/8/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/13/2010
#210
Today's Date -> 10/4/2010
8 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/8/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/12/2010
#211
OMG. That thing is capable of going *back* a day. Awesome. ;)
#212
Congratulations on a single-digit critical-count!
I've been watching this issue for months now, and I'm really excited to see the count so low. That excitement along with webchick's comment #42 led me to start learning about developing drupal and today I submitted my first patch for a contrib module.
I still don't think I'm ready for core yet, but maybe next time around :)
I hope everyone is getting excited,
-Josh
#213
I move http://drupal7releasedate.com to use only linear regression now because it clearly fits the pattern much better. That said, webchick has been committing like crazy and the core devs with specialties in the remaining issues are kicking ass. So maybe Oct 8 is a better projection. Could be any day now!
@Josh: Welcome to the community! I'm so glad that you got involved in contributed. Your contributions make Drupal what it is. Thanks! Let us know if you have any questions. IRC is the best place to start: http://drupal.org/irc
#214
Today's Date -> 10/5/2010
8 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/8/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/12/2010
#215
Today's Date -> 10/6/2010
7 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/8/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#216
http://drupal.org/node/934174
#217
Today's Date -> 10/8/2010
7 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/9/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#218
Today's Date -> 10/9/2010
7 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/9/2010
Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#219
Today's Date -> 10/11/2010
9 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/9/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#220
Today's Date -> 10/12/2010
11 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/10/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#221
Today's Date -> 10/13/2010
10 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/10/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#222
Today's Date -> 10/14/2010
11 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/11/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#223
Today's Date -> 10/18/2010
10 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/11/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#224
I think the critical issues are going to "float" for a bit now that things that weren't previously considered critical are getting (rightfully) re-promoted. 11/11 might actually be optimistic, unfortunately - I'm going to say Thanksgiving :)
#225
"11/11 might actually be optimistic"
you think? :-))
This whole thread has been a succession of posts shuffling the date on 1-2 days at a time. I'm not sure what the whole point of it was.
#98 remains the most accurate prediction of all and I posted it in mid-June...when according to the first post in this thread, D7 should have been ready!
#226
I predict sometime next year lol
#227
Gotta give arlinsandbulte props for being so diligent with this thread.
I don't think it will make Thanksgiving like EvanDonovan suggests, but I am fairly sure it will ship before Chrismas.
#228
Today's Date -> 10/20/2010
10 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/12/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#229
@pgacv2: Remember that this is a RC1 countdown, though, not a 7.0 full release countdown. I think that there will be an RC1 (i.e., no criticals) by Thanksgiving.
#230
Today's Date -> 10/22/2010
5 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/12/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#231
Today's Date -> 10/23/2010
5 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/13/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#232
Today's Date -> 10/24/2010
6 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/13/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#233
Today's Date -> 10/25/2010
4 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/13/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#234
Today's Date -> 10/26/2010
5 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/14/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#235
Today's Date -> 10/28/2010
5 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/14/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#236
Today's Date -> 10/29/2010
3 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/15/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#237
only 3 left for now
#238
Today's Date -> 10/30/2010
3 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/15/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/10/2010
#239
Today's Date -> 10/31/2010
4 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/16/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#240
Today's Date -> 11/1/2010
4 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/16/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#241
Today's Date -> 11/3/2010
5 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/17/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#242
wow, we actually hit 3 once. This is crazy, I'm thinking about a certain ketchup commercial ... anticipation... ;)
#243
I'm looking at the critical issue list and just wondering.... these are considered critical issues? not meaning to offend, but where do we measure or determine what makes a critical bug? Maybe I missed something, but do these issues actually prevent or stop some core feature or function in D7? I'm wondering because I've watched and learned Drupal for a little while now and toyed with the idea of releasing our first production extranet. There been so many modules released and stable for D6 platform and such a tremendious effort, with huge enhancements in D7 that it just looks like plain awesomness...all of which leaves on with such a huge, huge decision.... "What platform do I go with?" waaaa. Ok actually I'm building both a D6/D67 mockup of both yea... :) but I'm just lost and really ready for someone to either just pull the trigger or just shoot me in the head, and let me die... I'll go quietly either way, just please people lets MAKE THIS HAPPEN!!!. I don't really want to die at a very young age. . P)
lol , no please do not send any hit-men or assassins to kill me. That would be a bad bad thing.. especially this close.. ;)
#244
@gfxguru please search for it.
http://drupal.org/node/45111
#245
please accept my apology for ranting on...
Thank you.
#246
The policy for betas on core releases is that there will be an upgrade path from beta to beta to rc to main release, so while things may be unstable, and there may be one or two api changes (you would really have to twist chx arm at this late stage for any more of these), it is sort of safe to use Drupal 7 now. If you use HTTPS login, remember that there is a public security notice on how to hack your site, so do not use Drupal 7 yet!
#247
Today's Date -> 11/4/2010
6 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/17/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#248
One more usability extension for this issue would be to update the title on each entry:
Drupal 7 RC1 Release Countdown - 6 Critical Issues - 11/11/2010
Although the share number of points on the curve means that there is little or no movement on the date regression, as you would expect at this stage of the project.
#249
For all the people watching this issue, here are some things you could work on while you wait :)
As for whether you can start building a site in D7, it all depends on what type of site you are building, what its intended audience is, and when you need it to be live. Or if you're big enough and good enough with Drupal, you can already be live, like Drupal Gardens or examiner.com.
#250
With all the self proclaimed drupal brainiacs around here you would think a few issues could easily be take care of.
#251
Today's Date -> 11/6/2010
4 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/18/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#252
I adjusted the "zero date" of the http://drupal7releasedate.com projection to match the zero date here because it is actually more accurate (thanks the the Excel solver utility). Our dates now match one another.
I think it's very likely that the "zero bugs" date will be after our projections because the last 5-6 bugs seem to be taking a while. After that point, does anyone have any idea what I should put on drupal7releasedate.com to make it a useful page? It's getting 400-700 hits a day and I want those folks to have a useful place to look to understand the situation and put work in if they can!
#253
How about a few page commemorating the work that was done to make drupal 7. A historical account of all the goals and developments.
#254
I think that the algorithme should changed. To reflet a more real release date.
Given more importance the the last month performance, and never give a negative release date.
#255
@auzigog: Thanks for asking. I think if you could highlight some of the issues that I have mentioned, especially the one about writing the release announcement, that would be helpful.
cosmicdream's idea in #253 is also good. The CHANGELOG.txt has a summary, but it would be cool if you could look up who were some of the principal contributors to some of the features mentioned in there, to acknowledge their efforts.
#256
and time! Don't forget to put the dates up , long Drupal 7 has been in development. I'm still not able to find that one actually..
Hey one good note. I noticed that the organize by platform on drupal.org is now working! seems like it was a bug for a long time.
I'm wondering about this public notice of security issue for Drupal 7? Wish we had a message system working so we could just pass info like this without publicizing it in comments. Please tell me more! I'm actually thinking about releasing our first build on D7. I have yet to create one for a client but have couple of private sites running D6. Now you have me worried... I know the issue with logins and how to avoid it, actually wondering why this was not fixed in core for both platforms... When you know it's a security risk why propagate it?
Anyways I'm having a difficult time finding the features I'd like to integrate into D7 within modules unless I go back to D6, here in lies my continued problem, application bloat and system requirement to sustain a decent build as the usage increases. Plus the hackers, Yes I've been dealing with them for a while now, Thing is when you collect attempts and submit logs to the correct ppl, it seems to make heads roll a lot faster... ;) But then again a true hacker only uses a compromised machine. Most script kiddies take heed to warnings from an ISP.
#257
@gfxguru: To my knowledge the security issue with https logins has been resolved (note its absence in the critical queue).
There is no corresponding security issue for D6, I believe, since there weren't separate http vs. https sessions in D6.
Security issues are always addressed publicly prior to a full release of Drupal. Once Drupal 7 is at full release, if any further security issues are discovered, they will not be publicly disclosed.
#258
I know that sounded a bit harsh but the first rule of logins should be passing the encrypted password from the browser to the server.(You don't need SSL to do this "example jquery") That's the easiest way to hack a site and should have been the first issue solved a long time ago. I asked a question a while back and spurred a little reaction. So I'll just pass this along.."How many domains currently using Views on D6?(almost a quarter million) and how many actually using a login security, safer login or module that transforms the default drupal login?(under 2000) That's either a lot of excellent programmers or a bunch of individuals that don't know.
Point is... I think we should migrate a secure login into D7 core before it's released.
#259
Am I wrong about this? Please someone correct me if I am. Are Drupal 7's login password passed in clear text from the browser to the server?
#260
In http yes, in https no.
If you want OTP (one-time password) you have to find one module.
#261
We can include encryption of the password without SSL for frontpage and any other pages login box. I just think this should be a core feature for D7. Why put a bunch of insecure websites out as a release candidate?
#262
#256 - 261:
Your discussion does not belong here. Please open an new core issue.
#263
Today's Date -> 11/8/2010
4 Critical Issues
Zero Critical Issues Date
Linear forecast -> 10/18/2010Logarithmic forecast -> 11/11/2010
#264
Bringing us back on track:
How should we adjust the release date to never be negative?
Maybe have 3 boxes that results in an estimate:
1) 0 bugs date projection (nov 11)
2) Real 0 bugs date (estimate - Nov 25)
3) RC 1 date (rough guess on our part - 2 weeks?)
4) 1+2+3 = Dec 20 estimate?
Thoughts on that aspect?
Would anyone be willing to collaboratively edit the front page (or other pages) and the CSS to have a new style ready to go? I'm swamped with school work but I don't want the 400+ people who visit the site each day to be confused after Nov 11th hits. If I toss this up on github would a couple people be willing to collaborate on pumping it up a bit for the sake of an informed community?
Tasks I see:
* New "task estimate" process
* Recognition page
* "key tasks left to complete"
If anyone could do any of those, it'd help a lot. I bet we could come together and all put in an hour or 2 of work and have a usable site for the community.
Reactions?
arlinsandbulte, what were you going to do once Nov 11th hit?
#265
Anyone following this, you can help the release get out faster and less buggy without a single line of code read or written by testing #944308: Update to jQuery 1.4.4.
#266
Let me be the first to say it:
We've hit 0 critical bugs, folks!
https://skitch.com/webchick/ry872/webchick-drupal.org
Celebration is in order. Thanks to everyone who's put months of their life into this and thanks to anyone who contributed the simplest patch.
http://drupal7releasedate.com is currently tacking on 17 days as a rough estimate of when the release candidate process will be complete.
Go team!
#267
WOOT! zero criticals!
I have been a little busy lately, so I did fewer updates the last couple weeks.
For the last couple of months, the logarithmic forecast has been predicting a zero criticals issue count date or right around November 11. So, it was only a couple days off.
I am closing this issue now as it has run its course.
Maybe someone will begin something similar to predict a 7.0 release, but I am not sure what metrics can be used to do that.
CONGRATULATIONS D7 TEAM!!!!!!!!
#268
you better re-open again...back up to 10 criticals. D7 is still some way off.
#269
No, I am not going to re-open.
The new criticals are due to webchick's call to makes sure there are no obvious criticals hiding in the 'major' issue queue.
While not a promise, webchick wants "to roll RC1 to no later than November 30, 2010".
Read the beta3 release for more info:
http://drupal.org/drupal-7.0-beta3
#270
now up to 13. I would be a bit surprised if the RC saw the light of day in November. You never know...
#271
Automatically closed -- issue fixed for 2 weeks with no activity.
#272
Drupal 7.0-rc1 out
#273
it's released, have a look at:
http://drupal.org/node/985946
no official announcement yet..
#274
Hey friends,
Here is the CSV export of the data compiled on http://drupal7releasedate.com
Here's the export: http://drupal7releasedate.com/d7rd-bugs.csv
Dries asked for it today and I thought it might be useful to other folks.
It's very similar to the data arlinsandbulte posted above. Mine might have more consistent data because I set up a script to gather it for me.
Enjoy and let me know if you'd like any other info from the site.
PS - I bought drupal8release.com. I would've taken drupal8releasedate.com but someone snagged it out from under me. :)