With 2009 closing and 2010 coming, it is time to look back over our shoulder and see what a great year we had. And it is time to look ahead and predict where the future of Drupal will lead us to in 2010.

2009

Lets start with looking back. Drupal turned eight and in CMS years this means we are young at heart while grownup in our soul.

At Dries' site, you can find a selection of sites that Dries found worthwhile mentioning, maybe because he liked the site, the implementation or the usage or the owner of the site can potentially influence other prospects to see the Drupal light. Let us take a look at that list and see what they have trends we can conclude from that list combined with the knowledge about our community.

Many big name sites switched to Drupal in 2009. In the media / entertainment market, some of the names include:

In the media an entertainment market, Drupal seems to be the go-to choice when selecting a CMS. But Drupal traditionally has a big footprint in the Not for Profit / Government and education sector:

This impressive lists is complemented with lots of enterprises switching to Drupal. This list include Symentic, Nokia, AHOLD, Randstad, Sony Ericsson, Mattel, Rackspace, AT&T, FUJI film and even Google!

Drupal is in fact "running the Internet" with Linux Foundation, JAVA.net and even the Internet Systems Consortium all switching to Drupal in 2009.

But by far the biggest news that no-one predicted in 2008 was the Whitehouse going Drupal!

Though this is just a small section of all the new Drupal sites we have been seeing born in 2009, the trends are clear.

  • The first trend is that Drupal is being used more and more and by bigger companies. Where Drupal used to flourish in the niche community sites, last year really proved that big enterprises will adopt the best Open Source CMS as well. Drupal – a decade ago a non-existing word – is now a name in boardrooms, town-halls, senates and pressrooms all over the world.
  • Secondly, we realized in 2009 that the secret goal of Drupal -World Domination- is getting closer and closer. A couple of years ago, Drupal development and implementations were nearly all done in northern America and western Europe. And if you look at the current trend, Drupal is popular all over the world, including Asia, Australia, Africa and South America.
  • A third trend that can be seen while looking back, is that our ecosystem has become bigger and bigger. Drupal.org has around 400,000 users and many of the new converts do not fit the traditional developer profile. So we did not just grow bigger, we also broadened our community. This can be seen by the number and types of books that have been published in 2009 For example, Drupal 6 SEO, Content Administration, Views recipes, Drupal with flash, Site blueprints, Sitebuilding Solutions, Designing, Screening, Scripting and Social Networking. We started to attract people with interest in Search Engine Optimization, Design, IT architecture and User Interfaces.
  • Another trend is the fact that no-one can deny that whitehouse.gov switching from a proprietary CMS towards Drupal puts Drupal on the map, any map! It seems that anyone looking into a new CMS for a site has some explaining to do when not taking Drupal (or Open Source in general) into account. This milestone of 2009 really marks the fact that sharing code, peer review and many eyeballs can be a very successful for software development. So successful, in fact, that Drupal now features on all IT research firms like Gartner. This love of corporations for Drupal is mutual with Dries "State of the Drupal" talk focusing on economic cycles.

Other important milestones were the Drupalcon DC (apart from being the biggest conference up to now, it featured a very well designed and award winning website and DrupalCon Paris, featuring Druplicon. Drupal also became easier to install with Install profiles taking off and a number of Drupal distributions like Managing news, Acquia Drupal and Open Atrium. All this work was recognized, we did win the Best PHP Open Source award, Webware 100 the Packt Hall of Fame award, 18 projects funded by Google’s Summer of Code and nearly $500.000 invested from the Knight Foundation.

2009 sure was a year with many many highlights. And many predictions of last year for 2009 were right, including the first Drupal tatoo.

2010

And now it is time for you to predict the future of Drupal for 2010. Will smallcore rule the Drupal world, google.com switch to Drupal, Drupal be pre-installed on all "iTablets"? It is up to you to make funny, witty and smart predictions for the year ahead! My prediction? Drupal will turn nine. For sure.

Comments

The new design will go live and win at least one prestigious design award! (Or all of them :) !)

Drupal 7 will be released, and it's announced that Drupal 8 will focus on database optimization!

Drupal.org will have an actually decent April Fools Joke. :)

~silverwing

________________________________
MisguidedThoughts

It'll be great to see how the redesign of Drupal.org and Drupal 7 helps Drupal and the Drupal community as a whole.

Indeed!

The new Drupal.org homepage prototype is beautiful - well done to everyone involved!

Stan

  • Development Seed will map Mars for a real estate company that has purchased ownership rights to vast swaths of Martian territory.
  • Rob Loach will integrate three new web services' APIs with Drupal.
  • The D7 Ubercore Initiative will disruptively change the way people build e-commerce sites on Drupal 7.
  • Someone will finally get a Drupal yacht setup in the Mediterranean or Caribbean where Drupal devs will have timeshare space and take retreats for code sprinting and sunbathing... not that any of us have good tans.

----------------------
Drupal by Wombats

I'm sure there will be lots of rosy predictions here, so I'll throw out a few worst case scenarios instead:

Drupal will draw more criticism than ever before, as it moves from underdog to big time commercial solution. As the dollar signs get bigger, fewer people will be willing to contribute their time for free. Some module authors will abandon the free versions of their projects, and begin selling their work. There will be significant controversy, and legal posturing. The Drupal trademark will become a major source of contention. The redesign proves to be a major misstep, as the features that made Drupal.org a success are neglected in favor of new and trendy distractions. Dries grows disillusioned with Drupal and leaves to work on Django. A domain transfer error leaves Drupal.org in the hands of a squatter, and Drupal's new motto becomes "what you need, when you need it"...

--
John Forsythe
Need Drupal hosting? You should read my review.
Drupal Modules - Search, rate, explore. Over 2200 module reviews!

Yep, John, gloomy predictions... ;-)

But I have to tell you that the motto isn't bad, no sir, not bad at all... :-)

Warm regards to all from sunny México! And a wonderful New Year 2010!
:-)
Pepe

Warm regards from sunny México!
Pepe
:-)

This is what I predicted in January 2009 - http://drupal.org/node/356251#comment-1192416

1) Dries/Acquia may consider opening Indian office to push more development and gain traction. As less and less people contribute or put it other way as Sr. Resources focus more on revenue generation activities and less of contributing and Junior developers step in to the plate for contributing to Drupal, it will create a void to oversee the overall architecture, growth, focus, etc and a development center in India or China or Europe may help keep few people at centerstage for next few years and have control of things.

2) New Redesign will gain overall appreciation

3) If Economy again takes a second dip in 2010 (it is very likely because stimulus money has not solved the basic problem - "How to measure value of knowledge"), Drupal will benefit more this time if D7 is released at that time.

4) It will be Rails 3 v/s Drupal 7 - although both cannot be compared but still when someone is to make a decision they will take a hard look between Rails 3 v/s Drupal 7 and for very large implementations Rails 3 will win in 7 out of 10 instances. It will be ubercart making decision go in favor of Drupal.

5) As Drupal becomes more feature rich, complex there will be strong need for more automated testing tools. SimpleTest is a good start but is still not where it should be.

6) Average development/support rates for Drupal Services will come down by at least 20% across the board.

7) There will be companies starting to look at building automated migration tools i.e to convert sites from other platforms to Drupal.

Now some challenges

8) Drupal 7 may not get a stable release before August 2010.

9) Despite Drupal's continued growth, few big names will re-write components of their website into python, scala, etc. and keeping just a shell of Drupal running on external site. Will be viewed negative by CIOs.

Roshan
Drupal Development and Consulting

Roshan Shah
+1 (323)319-3609
Serial Entrepreneur | Skype : bpocanada
Drupal Development in India |Paid Drupal Support

John, you mean Drupal will turn into Joomla? Perish the thought!

~silverwing - yet, I understand...

________________________________
MisguidedThoughts

  • Drupal will continue to occupy the number one position in the php CMS market
  • Drupal.org will see a new site design which was not really approved or adored by the community as per old threads. (I mean the face, structural improvements are good)
  • Drupal - will hate it for being not able to do simple things like hide my online status or trendy things like add Social Apps or do useful things like Unicode text search BUT continue to love it for the amazing range of modules without which many would not have come to Drupal and the amazing stuffs they do for us and for core Drupal, without which core would be unusable. This will continue.
  • Drupal 7 apparently will have no new features which are really new for our site visitors to enjoy
  • And yet Drupal will continue to occupy the number one position in the php CMS market
  • Okay, I have a good one for the gloomy side, even though I'm not of this mindset. I love drupal, always will.

    In 2010, the Whitehouse.gov site that is running Drupal will be hacked, and somehow the DoD mainframe will become compromised, and it will be blamed on Drupal.

    This will spur an even more powerful division in CMS enthusiasts, and the evil Joomla douche-nuggets will influence Obama to declare Dries an enemy of the state, and declare war on Drupal. This will further spur the Drupal Railroad, and Drupal meetups being held at hidden speak-easys, and during Drupalcon 2010 in Copenhagen, Obama decides it may be the prime time for a surgical attack, and takes us all out in one location.

    This only leaves a small handful of crappy drupalers that couldn't make it to Drupalcon, and thus the patch queue comes to a grinding halt, and the Joomla enthusiasts host some grand party regarding our demise.

    :D

    --------------------
    Jake Strawn (@himerus)
    himerus.com | ThemeGeeks
    --------------------

    I Predict that Drupal community will be bigger and more active in my country

    My predictions :
    - Quality and the number of Drupal 7 modules will be increased dramatically
    - We will see more Drupal based softwares like Open Atrium
    - Drupal community starts to take performance much more seriously
    - Project module and related modules will finally become ready for production
    - Drupal's community will become much bigger , and since it becomes almost impossible to become friends there, we will see more local and small Drupal communities around the world.
    - Many opensource communities will use or switch to Drupal

    sina.salek.ws, Software Manager & Lead developer
    Feel freedom with open source softwares

    I predict that Drupal will head toward to overcome the criticism listed on http://php.opensourcecms.com/scripts/details.php?scriptid=191

    • The Media module redefines awesomeness for Drupal multimedia, along with an effort to put its Media assets as a fieldable entity into core.
    • The much-anticipated relaunch of the Drupal Dojo redefines awesomeness for Drupal education.
    • There will be serious efforts to put at least three API's into core from contrib: Token, Views, and [pick-your-favorite]. (Edit: As offered by chx below, #113614: Add centralized token/placeholder substitution to core... Sweet!)
    • The effort to remove the Poll module from core will be renewed, only to be vetoed again.
    • dopry will return to Drupal development, with a fantastic idea to overhaul an transform some or other overlooked API.
    • At least three Drupal certification programs will be announced, within the same quarter.
    • A new Winborn Drupaler will be born (~ May 23)!

    Drupal Multimedia (my book)
    AaronWinborn.com (my blog)
    Advomatic (Web Tools for Progressive Advocacy)

    are already thin on the ground and just becomes thinner while criticism and whining grows louder. Read this thread. Token is already in core. Someone linked a criticism which among others bashes Drupal for not having URL aliases. Someone else here claims it is not able to do Unicode text search. Another one compares a popular framework to the CMS-CMF hybrid that Drupal is and loudly predicts those two will be THE contenders. The GPL is still misunderstood.

    One thing for sure: I will try hard to stay out of the drupal.org forums.

    --
    Drupal development: making the world better, one patch at a time. | A bedroom without a teddy is like a face without a smile.

    @chx - Unicode text search does not work. Drupal core search or search as is out of the box fails to serach unicode, specially Devnagari and other Unicode texts. Some other CMSes can do this but Drupal fails. You can put up a core install of Drupal, paste some Devnagari text in a node, index it, and use search. You will see search fails. If you are successful, please post a demo link of that. Please note apache solr is not a solution for me. If I want java I will go for a java cms. Not hotch-potch or hybrid solutions.

    There are at least a dozen unsolved threads on these, of which some I have right at hand
    http://drupal.org/node/326295#comment-1094854
    http://drupal.org/node/178840#comment-2111598
    http://drupal.org/node/495356
    http://drupal.org/node/296590
    You can also see http://drupal.org/search/apachesolr_search/unicode%20search
    and particularly issues at http://drupal.org/search/apachesolr_search/unicode%20search?filters=type...
    for example this issue - http://drupal.org/node/604002

    If you have actual working solution we can post these in these threads too as it will remove a lot of pain for Devnagari or Indic unicode sites. I request and beg you for the facts/knowledge/solutiuon as this problem has been there for years and still ongoing.

    Random forum posts are not bug reports. Please file a bug report basically to the extent of "copypaste these characters (for example ÁÉŐŰ) into a node, index and then try to search on these characters (for example ÁÉ) it wont work" and then we can check. This is http://drupal.org/node/178840#comment-786748 the closest to it (its linked from http://drupal.org/node/604002) but it still misses crucial information like a) being in the issue b) the Unicode library from the status report page c) PCRE version (from the phpinfo linked from the status report page) d) OS. If you presume the core developers travel the forums for random, most of the time unreproducible bug reports you are wrong. If the search is broken then 604002 should be elevated to critical status. Instead of bashing me and linking random forum posts, read http://www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~sgtatham/bugs.html and help all of us -- and help yourself.

    Also, I have seen reports having problem with 'You must include at least one positive keyword with 3 characters or more" -- there is a setting for minimal word size.

    --
    Drupal development: making the world better, one patch at a time. | A bedroom without a teddy is like a face without a smile.

    Thanks for your help. I have not bashed you, and I do use many modules created by you, so I do respect you. I usually do not bash someone I respect. Maybe for some reason you are in an upset mood. May happiness and health return to you.

    That said, I fully agree forum posts are not bug reports and no one expects busy core devs to scan or solve forum just for free. I also do not expect. Thing is that Drupal search does not work out of the box in many of the hosting environs just as it is. There may be or may not be tweaks, workarounds or what not. But Drupal-as-it-is, in common hosting servers and set-ups, does not work commonly for Unicode devnagari/indic etc.

    You have asked me to submit bug report. But there are already bug reports. I saw those and I have posted links for everyone to read and see. Very recently I submitted a bug report (for another issue) which was marked dupe with promptness and I was told to avoid dupes as far as possible by a dev. So I am confused.

    Probably you mean the bug report 604002 itself is faulty and buggy and lacks certain info. Then, in all probability, some one higher than me / who understands what info is lacking in that report should have set the status like "needs more info" or something like that. Okay. I will now add to that post asking for the info you have sought. I also made a new issue since you asked to file the bug report.

    Regarding 'You must include at least one positive keyword with 3 characters or more" - this error message is generated even when the settings are right, which is shown by the fact that English words are found okay. Thanks for your concern, and a teddy to your bedroom with a smile :)

    I don't know if this might help you but the luceneapi module seems to do a much better job on searching than core drupal search. I don't know about the Unicode aspect though.

    The Unicode problems have been patched in #604002: Poor search support of some Unicode scripts and committed to D7. I've submitted a D6 patch to that issue as well, but it hasn't been accepted yet; please test it if you're so inclined so that we can get it in there.

    Solr/Lucene is great, but the overhead required to get it set up is out of the reach of more technical users and/or systems on shared hosting or tight VPS accounts.

    Drupal extensions (modules/themes/features) will increasingly be scattered all over the net and users will get very annoyed by that decentralized information. We will #fail in providing even a simple solution.

    The amount of Drupal core contributors will decrease further, since you need to have pretty advanced skills even to do a simple change. The framework/product discussion that started in 2009 will be identified as #1 problem, and our answer (and whether we find one) will have the most important impact on Drupal's success or breakdown beyond 2010.

    A couple of Drupal 7's UX "improvements" will be identified as monster #fails and Drupal will be dismissed by system evaluators due to them. Among those will be the new IA, the Overlay, and possibly also the dashboard and shortcuts.

    Automated testing of contributed modules on drupal.org will be established, leading to a much higher quality of extensions. At the same time, we will see many more d.o issues and even less contributors. SimpleTest will be removed from core and turned into a version-independent module (like drush). And doing so will raise questions about backwards and forward compatibility in general.

    We will see at least 10 more Drupal distributions and Drupal-based products, and due to that, a diverge of users and communities. Especially the products will lead to scattered approaches (scratch your own itch manifesto), because businesses based on Drupal need a solution now and have no time to work on proper, sustainable long-term visions and solutions.

    As the demand for privacy increases, the general meaning of open and data liberation will have a high impact on Drupal core. We will try to accommodate this need by entirely revamping the user roles and permissions system, and putting Views, Services, and Feeds in core.

    Speaking of introducing and changing features in core, we will finally understand that putting half-baked features into core is the worst that can happen (Token UI in contrib). The paradigm change of turning code freeze into a feature freeze will see more attention.

    A Go-HTML5 initiative will be born and members of the Drupal community may even start it.

    Daniel F. Kudwien
    unleashed mind

    I will proof tha_sun wrong more times then he anticipates, but agreed I do also see a collapse in contributors to Drupal core mostly due to complexity. Not just the complexity of the programming, but also the complexity of the UX has risen to such heights that its very hard to attract the right contributors.

    - More designers will be attracted towards Drupal, making it better as a whole.
    - Community will come to terms, there might be many different good user experiences
    - We will accept that we have become less open and polite, and try to take measures to fix this
    - Drupal 7 will be awesome

    I dont write code.

    I don't think we'll have a good handle on the relevant number of contributors until release. Despite my name appearing in the top ten for Drupal 6, I didn't start doing core patches (or not on any regular basis) until after Drupal 6 code freeze - although that lasted more than six months, but still. So comparing end-of-Drupal-6 numbers to middle-of-Drupal-7 numbers isn't a great comparison. Bugs get easier to fix when people aren't allowed to propose API changes, there's a greater sense of urgency, more people are testing manually and finding small bugs etc. etc. The longer development cycle, testing etc. might change all this though.

    I agree the framework vs. product debate, is going to be critical, both for how we work on core socially, and Drupal's technical development. At the moment it's not even properly named, #smallcore is a stupid meme which is a complete misnomer if you actually try to describe it. Framework vs. product is a false dichotomy - frameworks can be products, and when people can refer to Drupal as a product and that not sound weird, is when I'll stop working on it. The dichotomy is between framework and application, and it's these needs which need to be solved.

    My predictions:

    Drupal 7.0 will release before DCSF. Drupal 7.1 will release just after DCSF.

    It will take up to a year to upgrade Drupal.org to Drupal 7. At least some performance issues or race conditions in core won't get found or addressed until that happens though, despite the increasing number of large sites running on it.

    If we do not want to repeat mistakes (really, who repeats mistakes?), then Drupal 7 won't be released before drupal.org runs on it.

    That should be one of the lessons we should have learned of Drupal 6. #D7CX is great, but it has no meaning, if there is no actual use-case and proof of it.

    We can prevent releasing Drupal 7.5 within a couple of weeks, by just not doing the same mistake twice.

    Daniel F. Kudwien
    unleashed mind

    I agree

    I would really like to know what the Australian Broadcasting Company is? Hold on that was what "The ABC" was called prior to 1932. Wow you must have a great memory.

    I know the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) is using drupal. Why would you expand an acronym you don't know? Why not just use the acronym as you have used the BBC.

    The ABC is one of the most respected producers of news in the world, and is responsible for public investment in fantastic television much the same as the BBC or PBS in the USA.

    You might want to change the wording to "The ABC" or "Aunty"

    ABC is also the American Broadcasting Company and the Asahi Broadcasting Corporation. BBC is just, well, the BBC.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABC

    ________________________________
    MisguidedThoughts

    Wordpress will be Dupalized during 2010 on the way to become a complete CMS.

    As Wordpress has won the Overall Best Open Source CMS Award 2009, Drupal will have a tough time competing with Wordpress during 2010.

    The moment when Wordpress becomes "Drupal" is the moment when WP kills itself. The power of wordpress, now, is that it is *not* Drupal. It is highly focused, opinionated, determined and inflexible. Those are good things for its audience and its main goal: being the perfect blog/publishing platform.

    Drupal is not focused (it can't even choose if it is a CMS or a framework). Drupal is not opinioated. It has got no single goal and is highly But when Drupal tries to be wordpress, it will have to cut of most -if not all- of its main developers-base: people using it as a framework to build custom applications on top of.
    When Wordpress becomes a Drupal, it will start having features such as views, CCK, database abstraction layers, logging-abstraction-layers, state-machnies, webservice-environments and so on: stuff no sane wordpress user wants to touch :)

    @Kessels - Are the new install profiles not there to sort the situations ? For example a blog version of Drupal, ready made just for a blogger. In fact the very front page of Drupal can have clear and loud links of not much but three to four (take opinion poll on the number) flavors of Drupal - the usual cms/cfm Drupal, Blog Drupal, Ecomm Drupal, Social Network Drupal. These 4 are the major categories in which various popular scripts are thriving.

    And WP does have a Drupal version already and refining on it seems. If you're looking for a clean, lightweight alternative to Drupal/CCK or Joomla, then look no further - the Pods.

    Sure. Install profiles. Only they are not new. They have been around since years. I remember predicting in Drupal predictions for 200X something like "install profiles will readically change the way we distribute and present Drupal to new users".

    I was wrong. Partly technical reasons which are now fixed. And partly marketing reasons: People talk about Drupal. Not about "Atrium", or "Aquia". People say "Whitehouse was built on Drupal" eventhough it was probably built on Pressflow (just for the sake of the argument, let us say it was). New people will therefore lok at "Drupal" and will ignore all the other brands such as "Pressflow" or "fill in your better-fitting install profile here". People will, therefore always first run into Drupal, use Drupal, try Drupal. Only when that fails, or when they are are more experienced, will they start looking at certain profiles or derivatives.

    The technical changes recently introduced a far better chance for profiles to become well adopted then before. I predict there breaktrough will be this year. But not enough of a breaktrough to become the "answer to all the Drupal difficulties".

    I discovered this pretty awesome WP Theme called Headway yesterday and it's amazing. Gives WP Users the Power of Views and CCK in a visual, drag and drop package that's over-layed on top of your theme.

    Wordpress is best suitable for blogs only not for websites, portal. While drupal is best for big portal and it has so many features and so many modules. It has multiples modules for every functionality whereas wordpress doesn't have.
    I hope database optimization also will be there.

    Wordpress is a CMS not just for blog sites.

    Wordpress is best suitable for blogs only not for websites, portal.

    I get tired of people saying Wordpress is only for blogs, maybe in the past, but not anymore.
    Wordpress is a full fledged CMS, period, aside from a few extra Drupal bells and whistles, Wordpress can do anything Drupal can do.

    I think one of Wordpress greatest strength is that other CMS users especially Drupalers tend to underestimate the CMS power of Wordpress. So keep on dumbing it down and thinking it's just for blogs, that only makes it easier for Wordpress to gain more popularity as a CMS platform.

    Another thing that is often underestimated is CMS user loyalty. Don't think for a second, just because we who enjoy using Drupal (for now) won't drop it in a heart beat if something better comes along. I love Drupal but I have Wordpress close by to review it's progress and for motivation when Drupal headaches become too much to bare.

    I see potential in Drupal and hope it will slim down and focus on usability instead of gearing it to programmer's wants and needs. D7 is looking good, a better start but still lacking in the usability area. Perhaps by the time it gets to version 20 it might be in the same league as Wordpress.

    Cheers :))

    1. Drupal.org will finally abandon CVS in favor of Git.
    2. Someone will come up with an easy solution for multimedia handling that will rival that of Wordpress.
    3. Someone will write a db abstraction layer for Oracle.
    4. A Drupal-based social networking site will break the top 1500 in Alexa ranking. Dries will join that site just for the heck of it.
    5. At least 2 new modules will be developed that completely change how we use Drupal, and we will wonder how we ever lived without it. I'm thinking something like the impact that Views and CCK had.
    6. There will be a forum module developments (probably contrib) that will finally silence all of the vBulletin naysayers.
    7. Drupal's world domination will be assured when Chuck Norris' website is re-written in Drupal.

    --
    Drupal development: making the world better, one patch at a time. | A bedroom without a teddy is like a face without a smile.

    -> 5. Linodef to embed D objects in textfields. ;D
    -> 6. Advanced Forum might be a start.

    http://drupal.org/project/drubb mey be the forum of choice when all is said and done.

    ...which contains Advanced Forum. DruBB is headed more towards an install profile.

    Senior Drupal Developer for Lullabot | www.davereid.net | certifiedtorock.com/u/53892

    I expect a lot of contributions to appear on github. CVS is a serious PIA, everyone knows it, but this year we will still not see Drupal moving away from it. And even if I am wrong there, it will most probably move to the slightly-less-PIA code-management system SVN.
    Git, bzr and other distributed, modern revision control systems are far less of a PIA. They are quite often even really fun to work with.

    Drupal core is already on github, as are some drupal modules and -projects.

    There are others doing the same with Bazaar (bzr). BZR and Git are quite similar, and Drupal developers tend to like bzr more then git. We will see more people moving to both systems this year. And will probably see the balance tipping to one side by the end of the year.

    My bet is on git, but that is only because i really love the hosted git-environement github :).

    While I love bzr and find it to be easier to teach people than git (its command set is similar to svn so the transition is easier for the typical drupal dev) I think git will win. Bzr doesn't even have a solid mac gui.

    I think this will be the year we see a lot of drupal modules/themes/features/distros using git.

    Bzr doesn't even have a solid mac gui.

    Bazaar Explorer is OK.

    Bazaar Explorer is no good as a mac gui. You need to install QT (about 140 megs) and pyQT. Recently they started including pyQT in a download. But, the lack of QT (which isn't native to mac) is an issue. And, there are usability issues. For example, each new window is a new app and they can (and often do) open behind the one you have open.

    It just doesn't cut it for GUI users both from an install standpoint and from a usability standpoint.

    Do you mean QT(apple) or Qt (nokia)? Qt surely is not 140 MB. With all modules it should be around 20MB and I doubt you'd ship all of them with a bzr client.

    I doubt a GUI will be the factor tipping the balance. The web-environment where stuff is managed will be a greater factor, I think. And launchpad (for BZR) is far less Cool, easy and smooth then github.

    As much as I am a GUI lover, there are areas where no GUI can ever solve the underlying complexity. For SVN and CVS there are great GUIs. But still I (and many of the people I train) have to grab a CLI nearly daily, to solve CVS problems or do SVN stuff that is a lot harder in -say- Tortoise.

    As such, both git (being very natural for linux-CLI users) and bzr are a lot friendlier on the CLI. Not because of features, but because their concept is more solid, consistent and simpler then many other RCS'.

    We're not going to move Drupal development to a proprietary service if I have *any* say. Gitorious is FOSS, if you're looking for a hosted git option. We can't put our development infrastructure on a system that could just go away and leave us helpless to even support it ourselves.

    I hope you're referring to GitHub only. Launchpad is entirely free.

    I'm gonna be that annoying guy who speaks up in every DVCS discussion to remind people not to forget about Mercurial. It's pretty popular in the Python world. Unlike other projects, ease of use is a design goal for it, and I think that factor cannot be ignored when it finally comes time to ditch CVS, especially if getting more people involved in contributing to core is a goal. Git seems to be popular because Linus invented it, but if popularity were the sole reason for choosing one tool over another, we'd be having this conversation at wordpress.org instead.

    Its Github parallel is Bitbucket, which offers accounts with one decent-sized (<150MB) repository for free.

    2010 will be for drush make and features what 2009 was for drush.

    For me Drupal is unusable because it neglects the one main thing and that's an actual Wysywig editor the hoops you have to jump through just to actually be able to write a simple post and attach an image astounds me. I've tried Drupal numerous occasions and I can never do that one simple thing or get any of the damn Wyswig Modules like Tiny MCE or the five modules needed to attach a simple image to work! I understand the reasoning behind not including an proper editor, but in this day and age, I mean really, why is it so difficult to include one and still have it be modular so if developers don't like it, they can swap it out if they want. It's just the Drupal team being obstinate jerks for not including one.

    erm not exactly.

    a method is being worked on to include any editor in core and if something ships with core it has to be GPL and work.

    This may due to the fact of Drupal's strict adherence to GPL.

    Many of the good WYSWIYG editors depend on external libraries and are not always GPL.

    The best option is an installation profile that allows the modules to be included and the additional libraries to be download by the user after installation

    Reading all this gloomy predictions is clear that there are a lot of conflicts inside the community. Something completely new in my experience here. So I predict that 2010 will be the year of the conflict. But I'm sure the community will be able to deal with it because Drupal 7 and the new drupal.org design are after all a big step toward a better platform framework product

    Hi

    I am looking forward to a new views modiule and new cck module. Maybe there will be new panels module with new features (current block system is not flexible and it is really ancient).

    I am sad that there will be not content profile into core and "super mega awesome" drupal 7 will be based on ancient profile module. After all announcement about how drupal 7 will be specialized on usability and whatever, It is really big disappointment.

    My hopes and predictions.
    After many years, this year will be finally finished good working jump into new comments on other pages not only on the first page

    In this year there will be finally good gallery (maybe node gallery) based on imagefield, with continuously evolving, and multi upload from local computer, inheriting albums, comments & rating.

    In this year (D7 or some contrib module) helps with resource unfriendly db request system, and there will be created some queue with some logic, for better optimization of drupal db requests.

    This year will be finished some good image handling system for Drupal, based on imagefield. Insert module in it's current version is big PIA for using by people. IMCE and Image browser (which is probably the simpliest) are not based on imagefield. I am missing massive upload (from the local computer), into imagefield, and to show added images under article, and easy adding them into the content.
    Simple thing but for many years there is no good solution for it, other CMSes (wordpress) are so far with content media featueres.
    Maybe this year there it will be changed.

    Rules module start to be preffered solution versus triggers/actions.

    Somebody will do some changes/cuts for notifications/messaging module as so over complicated, and hard to use/administrate solution, and to create something more simply and easy and friendly to use, with some javascript for faster and easier working, like e.g. watcher module.

    Finally will end animosity between user relationships and friendlist, and user relationships module will be officially preferential module for relationships for users by drupal. I really hope that currently maintainer of user relationships module finally stop to ignore people they are using friendlist and after one year he will add an option to convert friendlist relationships into user relationships, for help to move from friendlist to user relationships module.

    There will be created some global system for things like og statistics and blog statistics and connect it to all node and user hooks (create/delete) for fast and resource friendly statistics about number of nodes/node types and users.

    I really like drupal, and I think this year will be really important for drupal if it wants to be interesting for newbies and not very skilled users too, because drupal is each year more and more complicated and out there is more and more simply or easier to use solutions.

    http://drupal.org/project/panels_everywhere for block system replacement : )

    @igorik

    For your ImageField gripes, checkout Drag'n'Drop Uploads, native (JS only) drag and drop uploading from your desktop to your Node Body.

    1. I think there will be big rising, increasing of Drupal cause of the snowball-effect. More and more People are using it.
    2. But there will be also a confusing running around, Drupal 5, 6 and 7 will be there at the same time. What to use, when to switch, why, how,...?
    3. Dupal is getting more and more fun. It´ll be amazing. People are getting euphorical using it, ...
    4. ...cause it is so easy to use.
    5. The modules are getting clearer. Many of them will be deleted or merged into another just not to have to many of them for the same funktion. They are getting more flexible. Sure they will be bigger in Bytes, but the actual site will use only that portion that it needs, ...
    6. ...so the speed of the modules and so of Drupal will increase.
    7. Module-Update will be really easy: a button-click on the "there are updates..."-Page of my Drupal and the module I clicked will be updated.
    8. There will be installation-packages like MAMPD, LAMPD or WAMPD for Mac, Linux and Win. And in the second half of the year there will be a lot of applications that are based on xAMPD (eMail-client, Office, ...). More and more of Windows will be ported to this AIO-Drupal-Application-Framework, cause it will be faster, lighter, easier to use.
    9. BeOS and Drupal are merged and will be THE OS of the year.
    10. Wordpress will become (turn into) a module of Drupal.
    11. There will be a default theme that is so flexible, that you can personalize it vastly just by clicking some buttons and adjusting some control-knobs.
    12. There will be a small core and a light way to go (easy to select the right modules) to have the site function one needs.

    It will be a tool, nothing more. Like a screw-driver. When you need it, it will be at your hand, easy and functional in the best way.

    A happy and successfull new year to all of you :)

    Arne

    -----------------------
    Think and Grow
    www.ArneTietz.de

    What I hope to see the most in 2010 is an evolution in theme designs, meaning more variety for starter themes, as well as niche specific themes.

    When will drupal 7 be released in 2010?

    April 15, 2010. Tax day.

    ----------------------
    Drupal by Wombats

    When it's ready!

    Well, let's hope D7 will be ready in spring, maybe summer...

    ...*fingers crossed*

    chx suggests that Drupal is a CMS-CMF hybrid. Bèr Kessels points out that, in a Free community, developers will increasingly choose to use modern revision control systems over CVS, even if the Project module is CVS-centric. catch (optimistically?) estimates 12 months to update d.o from D6 to D7.

    All these things are related, because in some sense Drupal is trying to be a hybrid of not only CMS and CMF but also an open source software hosting facility, à la Sourceforge.

    I predict many contributors will realize that insisting that all Drupal development depend on the 682nd-most popular module drastically slows d.o updates, makes it hard for module contributors to keep their code in modern RCS's, and just plain doesn't make sense. They will realize that self-developing and self-hosting are subtly different, and that Drupal can model itself more beautifully when it it not straining and sweating to hold itself up by its bootstraps.

    I predict Drupal will join its dear friend MySQL in making a distinction between its development platform and main website by moving the former to Launchpad.

    1. Drupal will get a new title tag and meta description and will overtake Wikipedia and Joomla as the #1 ranking in Google for the keyword: content management system.
    2. The number of Drupal camps will double from 2009.
    3. Lullabot will release a 3D Drupal learning video that will put James Cameron's Avatar movie to shame
    4. A massive earthquake will swallow up Drupalcon resulting in Dries and Webchick quickly building a module to defeat the Morlocks while Development Seed maps out the way from the center of the earth to wrap things up at Drupalcon Mount Vesuvius.
    5. Drupal's name will be mispronounced at the Open Source Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony
    6. 20+ new Drupal books will be released
    7. IE6 support will finally die for the majority of 2010 released themes.
    8. A giant Drupal robot and/or Drupal Poseidon will attack the Golden Gate bridge before May.

    Yes, Please add Intel to the list:

    Intel Developer program

    and many more important sections of Intel website are powered by Drupal.

    -Babu
    Promote Drupal with Tshirts/merchandise: http://paramprojects.com/drupalstore
    Drupal Projects showcase: http://paramprojects.com/website/drupal-servicesprojects

    My prediction is that in 2010 most of the companies in the world will use drupal for their content management portals. Most of the biggest sites will migrate to drupal. Most of the existing drupal developer will started to use drupal7 at the end of 2010. Drupal will continue in first position in PHP CMS . More sites will develop using drupal6. Number of drupal7 modules will increase surely. More user friendly ajax based cck will introduce. 2010 going to be a great year for drupal.

    • D7's entities will encourage module authors to not only support nodes and finally end the "everything should be a node" debate. (more)
    • More developers will use dvcs systems and the community will split in bzr and git users.
    • Automated testing for contribs will be deployed and help to improve the quality of the few contribs that have proper unit tests. But more contribs developers will start to write tests.
    • Rules2 will be ready once d7 is out and lead to the availability of a lot of entity metadata.

    Drupal's popularity will undoubtedly increase and have lots of positive effects on the Drupal Community. I predict there will also be some downsides to this.
    - First Drupal worm is reported to propagate in the wild through jumping between unpatched sites. Press goes wild as Kaspersky, Symantec and Steve Gibson claim this proves again those nasty open source cms software worms are the next big threat after mobile phones and those vacuum cleaning robots. Homeland Security raises the terrorist threat level on suspicions this attack is directed at whitehouse.gov. Two Days more later it turns out to be a hoax and both the threat level and anti-virus software stocks drop to normal levels again. Two executives and a freelance journalist are charged for manipulating the option market.
    - First patent lawsuits! Since Drupal is being used more and more by big publicly traded enterprises it's about time somebody persuades a bunch of ignorant lawyers they invented the node concept first in 1983 and sues Acquia, Warner Music, a few more big Drupal Shops and a mysterious evil hacker working under the pseudonym "Druplicon".
    - Rupert Murdoch threatens to block all Drupal sites crawling News Corps sites rss feeds claiming web sites build on Drupal undermine his business model.
    - Official Kim Yong Il fansite runs Drupal! U.S. trade department tries to ban the export of such advanced technology.
    - Sources around Danish royalty expose a plot to intoxicate the entire Drupal Community in August. Toxicologists determine Acquiavit as the primary poison vector. :-)

    Cheers, have a great one!
    SqyD / Paul K

    I especially enjoyed the Acquiavit bit!

    Warmest regards from sunny México!
    :-)
    Pepe

    Warm regards from sunny México!
    Pepe
    :-)

    • The drupal.org forums continue their progress toward low quality conversation and complaining (e.g. this thread)
    • Groups.drupal.org starts to slide toward this as well, but...
    • Groups.drupal.org gains more and more features of advanced collaboration making it a hub of high quality discussions in spite of the growth
    • Drupal 7 will be released
    • Drupal.org redesign will go "live" with a new look and some of the new pages, but many pieces will remain incomplete
    • Joomla! will begin a visible decline thanks in part to flawed licensing and a hierarchical community structure
    • Drupal is used on at least one site that ranks in the top 200 sites in terms of traffic
    • After a basic "7.x-1.x" direct upgrade, Pathauto's 7.x-2.x version will be so simple to administer and easily overridable for advanced module authors that it is quickly integrated into Drupal 8
    • Comment Notify follows a similar fate
    • Packaging of distributions makes them much more popular, but the 3rd party licensing restrictions and preference for a DVCS means that many major distributions will still be hosted elsewhere

    --
    CARD.com :)

    2010 - Someone will get foundation funding to build a solid CRM framework within Drupal for NPOs - similar to Ubercart. NPOs around the world will save millions of dollars currently invested in SaaS CRM offerings that poorly integrate with Drupal.

    Sean Larkin
    ThinkShout

    http://civicrm.org/ just keeps getting better—and they have really nice docs, but that's what comes of being a product rather than a framework.

    While I'm here I'll predict that concern to maintain/improve performance will spread, encouraged by a determination to deliver <500ms sites for all kinds of sites, with boost module moving towards core and progress towards automated performance testing for patches (perhaps starting by tapping into the slow query log on t.d.o). Neither of these will happen quickly, quite likely not in 2010 unless we get our act together, but the momentum will grow.

    perhaps in 2010 we'll all lighten up a lil

    Drupal will continue to be geared more towards developers and programming geeks ergo contributing greatly to Wordpress's increased popularity among the majority of web users.

    I predict Mollom will be installed on drupal.org to prevent spam comments on the 2011 predictions thread (among others).

    ----------------------
    Drupal by Wombats

    I predict against this one...groups.drupal.org may run Mollom but as long as Killes is responsible for the infrastructure...drupal.org will not run any "black box" solutions.

    --
    CARD.com :)

    I'll settle for putting any comment with more than, say, 5 links into moderation.

    ~silverwing - damn those Uggs spammers....

    ________________________________
    MisguidedThoughts

    Yeah, a couple heuristics would do wonders. User's first post is full of links, User creates 5 new topics in 30 minutes, etc..

    --
    John Forsythe
    Need Drupal hosting? You should read my review.
    Drupal Modules - Search, rate, explore. Over 2200 module reviews!

    ...what exactly do you think Mollom is?

    When they claim to have an "intelligent text-analysis filter," odds are that it's just marketing-speak for something mostly heuristic.

    The only reason they can charge for it is that no one's seen fit (yet) to code a free implementation of the same features.

    ...what exactly do you think Mollom is?

    "Machine Learning techniques, Language Analysis and a reputation system."

    http://mollom.com/files/mollom-technical-whitepaper.pdf

    --
    John Forsythe
    Need Drupal hosting? You should read my review.
    Drupal Modules - Search, rate, explore. Over 2200 module reviews!

    Many big name sites switched to Drupal in 2009. In the media / entertainment market, some of the names include:
    * Virgin, Slate, Monthy Python and Lucas Arts

    I hate to say it... but isn't that "Monty" Python and not "Monthy" Python?

    Jus' sayin'. :-)

    Looks like I missed the initial conversation here, but here's some more for everyone!

    • People mostly stop complaining about image handling after Drupal 7 is released. Yay!
    • Unfortunately those that do complain, they complain that WordPress's image handling is better than ours.
    • Media module totally wows people and makes official releases, a first for a complete media solution in Drupal (Asset anyone?)
    • The d.o redesign launches, later in 2010 drupal.org moves to Drupal 7 (but not before Drupal 7 is released).
    • We'll get a better way to subscribe to Issues!
    • The Form Builder project will create a new working UI for Fields in Core, but adoption will be very low (less than 2000 installs).
    • sun reduces the module count he works on. Becomes even more involved in core. :D
    • Lullabot and Acquia become friends (as companies, not as individuals).

    Someone will realize that they still havent enabled the ability to unfollow subscribed posts and they will work on a 'control panel' for users to manage their subscriptions and other more advanced, to get that 'community feel'

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "Anything worth having in life, is not going to be easy"

    "There is nothing to fear, but feat itself. And segfaults ... I really hate those"

    Drupal 7 will have all themers loose their breath as to what can be accomplished. It will take some time to really grasp how the game has changed.
    I predict Drupal will be harder to detect from a visual stand point on D7!

    I am constantly blown away at wordpress cms themes, you can't even tell they are wordpress unless you do some digging.

    Anyone who says wordpress is not a CMS is full of it, this site proves it.
    http://www.threeangelshaiti.org/

    Drupal sites are easy to identify, just follow the blocks and ugly themes.

    Wordpress has some great cms plugins too that make it function more like a cms.

    I predict Drupal will continue to become powerful and we all know what absolute power did to the sith lord, consume you it will.

    perhaps the well themed drupal sites are so great that you never even realised they were drupal.

    Now I just hope that 2011 is better than 2010. :)